New Zealand’s Initial Insights: Net Migration Data for April 2024
The balance of migrant flows has come down from its highs, though the most recent figures need to be treated with caution.
The latest migration figures for New Zealand reinforce that the pace of net inflows has passed its peak, though it remains high compared to history.
The annual balance slowed to 98,464 people in the year to April, dropping below the 100k mark for the first time in almost a year.
There were further downward revisions to the recent history, with last year’s cyclical peak being marked down from 139,075 to 137,736.
Stats NZ estimated a net inflow of 7,380 migrants in April, which would be the strongest month since December last year. However, there is good reason to treat the latest figures with caution – both inflows and outflows reportedly surged higher for the month.
We had previously noted that the modelling used to generate the initial estimates seemed to struggle to distinguish between migrants and holidaymakers over the Christmas/New Year period, and that may well have been the case again during the April school holidays. (One clue is the sharp rise in the number of “migrants” arriving on visitor visas.)
Looking at the broader trends, total migrant inflows remain above their pre-Covid levels. However, they are running below the peak seen in the early part of 2023, which reflected both the peak in work visa approvals and the return of international students for the first time since Covid.
The more significant change has been in departures by both New Zealand citizens and others. Departures of New Zealanders have been on an upward trend since early 2022, which likely reflects a catch-up on delayed plans.
More recently there has also been a lift in departures of non-New Zealand citizens, which may be a sign that deteriorating job prospects are prompting some migrants to return home.
Monthly net inflows have now pulled back to around the levels we saw in the years before Covid (noting that those were considered at the time to be quite strong).
We expect the balance to remain positive, but the softening economy is likely to weigh on New Zealand’s relative appeal as a destination for migrants.
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